Posted on

Delving Into Forensic Accounting

4 min read

What is Forensic AccountingAccording to a 2022 Allied Market Research report, the size of the global forensic accounting market is forecast to increase in value to $11.68 billion in 2031, up from its 2021 estimated value of $5.13 billion. Allied Market Research puts this compound annual growth rate at nearly 9 percent (8.8 percent). This same report found that the Covid-19 pandemic saw an uptick in the need for forensic accounting skilled professionals and approaches.

Forensic accounting is a specialization within the general accounting profession. Professionals in this specialized subset focus on allegations of financial fraud brought by individuals and businesses in the civil courts and government agencies in the criminal courts. Disputes can range from family members contesting assets and valuations of such assets in an estate, business, or divorce proceedings. When it comes to proving criminal allegations, government agencies look to forensic accountants to investigate financial records for evidence of fraud in the quest to prove crimes such as securities fraud or identity theft.   

Forensic Accounting Methodology

According to the Journal of Accountancy and the Association of Certified Fraud Examiners (ACFE), CPAs and specifically forensic accountants can use Benford’s Law to begin the process of identifying potential fraud. Examples of data sets that forensic accountants can build and analyze come from income statements, expense reports, ledgers, balance sheets, invoice and inventory data, accounts payable, and accounts receivable. When analyzing the leading or first digit in a data set, forensic investigators can take the data set and look at how the leading digits are distributed against the percentages that Benford’s Law sets out.

According to the ACFE, in contrast to the common belief that digits occur in equal probability, Benford’s Law states that numbers starting with 1 as the first digit occurs with the highest frequency. Then each subsequent number 2 through 9 occurs with lower probability. According to Carnegie Mellon University, per Benford’s Law, 30.1 percent of a data set will be led by a 1. The digit 2 will be the first in a data set 17.6 percent of the time. For numbers 3 to 9, the likelihood of each respective number leading the data set should become less frequent.

The ACFE gives the example of a counting exercise to illustrate Benford’s Law. When counting to 25, only one of the 25 numbers would lead with a 3; seven numbers would lead with a 2; and there would be 11 leading numbers beginning with 1. Numbers generated by a computer would give equal weighted probability to 1 to 9 being the first or leading digit. If equally weighted numbers were in fact generated, the results would deviate from Benford’s Law. However, simply because Benford’s Law is not observed in the dataset analyzed, it doesn’t automatically mean fraud occurred. But it is a tool that helps forensic accountants investigate further and determine through additional means if fraud did, in fact, occur.

Similarly, the ACFE points out that if someone wants to commit a financial crime, they would generate invoices worth a lot. It would be a lot more effective for someone to pass off invoices of $800 or $900, versus smaller $100 or $200 amounts. While this would make better use of a criminal’s time, according to Benford’s Law, if a forensic accountant were to test a data set against a few hundred invoices, they might see an abnormal percentage of them with high leading numbers, prompting further investigation.

The Journal of Accountancy reminds readers that it’s important to keep in mind a few caveats. The more numbers available in the data set, the better. It can work with as few as 50 to 100 numbers, but more is always preferred. Another consideration, per the ACFE, is where the data comprising the data set originates. Using a sports analogy, if players are between 5 feet and 8 feet tall, it would make testing the data set against Benford’s Law impossible because there’s zero chance of numbers 1 through 4 and 8 or 9 showing up in a probability test. In these scenarios, Benford’s Law wouldn’t apply.

While the method for detecting financial fraud is not black and white, the need for more forensic accountants will not slow down any time soon.

Sources

https://www.acfeinsights.com/acfe-insights/2023/3/28/benfords-law-how-to-use-it-to-spot-fraudnbsp?rq=Benford

https://www.acfeinsights.com/acfe-insights/2023/3/21/benfords-law-applicationsnbsp?rq=Benford

https://www.acfeinsights.com/acfe-insights/what-is-benfords-law?rq=Benford

https://insights.sei.cmu.edu/blog/benfords-law-potential-applications-insider-threat-detection/

https://www.journalofaccountancy.com/issues/2017/apr/excel-and-benfords-law-to-detect-fraud.html

https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/forensic-accounting-market-A17182

Posted on

Upholding Human Agency in an Era of Evolving Digital Systems

4 min read

AI and Human AgencyTechnology has greatly contributed to improving and streamlining everyday life. However, as technology advances, there is an increased reliance on digital tools powered by artificial intelligence and machine learning. Unfortunately, these technologies are also challenging the fundamental notion of human agency. As a result, there are rising concerns about humans losing the ability to make independent decisions.

What is Human Agency?

Human agency refers to the capacity of individuals to act intentionally and make choices that shape their lives. Although the human agency is influenced by various factors, including social, cultural, and environmental contexts, individuals should maintain the ability to exert some degree of control and influence over their lives. As far as technology is concerned, individuals must retain control and decision-making power. This calls for technologies that support humans in making informed decisions rather than controlling the decisions made.

Concerns Over the Effects of Digital Systems on Human Agency

The Pew Research Center and Elon University’s Imagining the Internet Center conducted a nonscientific canvassing to gather expert views about the future of the human agency.

The experts were specifically asked, “By 2035, will smart machines, bots, and systems powered by artificial intelligence be designed to allow humans to easily be in control of most tech-aided decision-making that is relevant to their lives?”

Of the 540 experts from different fields, 56 percent disagreed with the statement, while 44 percent agreed. Some of the main themes raised by the experts who disagreed with the statement include:

  • The agendas of commercial interests and governments will determine the future.
  • The convenience that comes with automation makes users less vigilant over technology.
  • AI technology’s complexity and rapid evolution can be overwhelming, making it difficult for users to assert their agency.

Common themes raised by participants that agreed with the statement include:

  • Humans also will evolve with technology, and there is the expectation that AI and tech companies will be regulated.
  • Expectations that businesses will protect the human agency to retain public trust and to keep ahead of the competition.
  • Technology will allow varying degrees of human agency.

Key Considerations for Upholding Human Agency

Seeing that technology will keep advancing and more automated systems will be witnessed, it’s crucial to implement ways to help uphold human agency. Some considerations include the following:

  1. Implement mechanisms that contest AI systems. An AI system is as good as the information fed to it. Therefore, it can be faulty or deliberately flawed, and there should be ways to request redress. This can be through AI policies that allow users to contest or rectify a decision made by AI systems.
  2. Empower users through systems that include meaningful choices and controls, enabling users to decide how to interact with them. For example, a system should allow users to adjust preferences, customize settings and choose the features they want. This promotes a sense of ownership and autonomy over digital experiences.
  3. Promote digital literacy and education to teach about technology capabilities and limitations. Technology users must develop critical thinking skills to exercise human agency and make informed decisions.
  4. Integrate ethical principles into technology design and deployment. This can be done by creating guiding ethical frameworks that consider the likely societal impacts and consequences of digital systems.
  5. Guarantee transparency and explainability in technologies and algorithms, providing users with accessible explanations of how decisions are made and what data is utilized. This transparency fosters trust in the technology and empowers individuals to make informed choices.
  6. Establish accountability for the design, development, and implementation of digital systems. Holding individuals and organizations accountable for the impact of their technology helps maintain human agency and promotes ethical behavior.
  7. Implement robust measures to safeguard individuals’ privacy and protect their data. This includes incorporating strong data protection mechanisms, giving users control over their personal information, and establishing clear consent mechanisms for data collection and usage, accompanied by transparent policies. Respecting privacy rights is paramount for preserving human agency in the digital realm.

Conclusion

The essence of being human lies in exercising control over the nature and quality of an individual’s life. However, technological advances such as artificial intelligence are raising concerns about this human ability. Humans are responsible for actively embracing and comprehending the possibilities and implications of living in a world where digital systems take over various tasks and processes. Instead of surrendering their agency, humans should view partnering with these digital systems as a means to supplement and strengthen their intelligence rather than surrendering it.

Posted on

Increasing the Federal Debt Limit, Improving Disaster Resources and Attempting to Reduce Government Waste

3 min read

Increasing the Federal Debt Limit, Improving Disaster Resources and Attempting to Reduce Government WasteLimit, Save, Grow Act of 2023 (HR 2811) – This bill was introduced in the House by Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-TX) on April 26. It would authorize and increase the federal debt limit as well as specific cuts in spending, such as repealed energy tax credits, expanded work requirements for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and other programs, and nullifies regulations for the cancellation of federal student loan debt. This bill passed in the House on April 26 but was not expected to pass in the Senate.

Pharmacy Benefit Manager Reform Act (S 1339) – Co-sponsored by three Republicans, this bipartisan bill would provide for increased oversight of benefits managers that provide pharmacy management services on behalf of health insurers and employer health plans. The bill was introduced by Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-VT) on April 27. A committee report was ordered and returned on May 11, where it awaits assessment by the full Senate.

Fire Suppression and Response Funding Assurance Act (S 479) – This bill is designed to ensure that pre-deployed state and local fire suppression assets are eligible for FEMA’s Fire Management Assistance Grants (FMAG) in an effort to improve the federal government’s response to wildfire disasters. It would adjust the cost share for fire management assistance to no less than 75 percent of the eligible cost. The bill was introduced on March 14 by Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA). A committee issued its report on the bill on March 29 and it is currently under consideration in the Senate.

National Weather Service Communications Improvement Act (S 1414) – This bill is designed to improve the instant messaging service used by the National Weather Service, as well as other purposes. The bill was introduced by Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) on May 3; its committee report was returned to the Senate on May 10, where it currently awaits review.

NWR Modernization Act of 2023 (S 1416) – Introduced by Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) on May 3, this bill would authorize upgrading and modernizing the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Weather Radio All Hazards Network. The Senate committee issued its report to the Senate on May 10, where it currently awaits review.

A joint resolution providing for congressional disapproval under chapter 8 of title 5, United States Code, of the rule submitted by the Environmental Protection Agency relating to “Control of Air Pollution From New Motor Vehicles: Heavy-Duty Engine and Vehicle Standards” (SJ 11) – This joint resolution nullifies the Environmental Protection Agency rule that pertains to the control of air pollution by new motor vehicles. The current rule sets high emission standards for heavy-duty engines and vehicles in order to reduce air pollution. The bill was introduced by Sen. Deb Fisher (R-NE) on Feb. 9 and passed in the Senate on April 26. It is currently awaiting review in the House.

Identifying and Eliminating Wasteful Programs Act (S 666) – Introduced on March 7 by Sen. Margaret Hassan (D-NH), this bill would require the Chief Operating Officer of each federal agency to compile a list of unnecessary programs. The assigned committee issued its report on March 29; it is currently awaiting review in the Senate.

Federal Agency Performance Act of 2023 (S 709) – This Act also is designed to improve performance and accountability within the Federal Government. It was introduced by Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) on March 8. The assigned committee issued its report for this bill on March 29; it is also awaiting review in the Senate.

Posted on

How To Recession-Proof Your Portfolio (Just in Case)

4 min read

How To Recession-Proof Your PortfolioSome economists and market analysts have been predicting a U.S. recession ever since last fall. They’ve been wrong before – but they’ve also been right. Rather than try to predict how the stock market will react during the next recession, investors are better off planning for a range of potential outcomes. This will help reduce the risk of losses regardless of whether or not the United States experiences a recession in 2023.

Bear in mind that stock and bond markets are forward-looking and typically priced to take into account economic conditions such as higher interest rates, inflation, and commodity prices. In response to whatever factors are in hand, the market adjusts in ways to try to keep returns on par with historical norms and practices.

In its market perspective for 2023, Merrill Lynch suggested that the economic cycle would bottom out, market returns would begin turning a corner, and investors who hold diversified portfolios would see less volatility and be positioned to fully participate in a renewed bull market.

There are several strategies you can implement to help mitigate the impact of an impending recession. Be aware, too, that these strategies are sound all-weather moves designed to help reduce your risk and maximize returns over the long term, regardless of economic and market conditions.

Diversify Your Portfolio

The recent failure of established regional banks is a reminder that there are no “safe” stocks – all stock market investing is subject to a wide range of risks. However, investors should be most wary of owning a high concentration in any single stock. After all, while it is unlikely the stock market will ever be reduced to zero, it is entirely possible for an individual stock to lose total value. This can happen due to a fall in demand, bankruptcy, corruption/embezzlement, a natural disaster, or a public relations scandal. There are many situations that are unforeseen and out of an investor’s control that can lead to substantial losses.

By diversifying your portfolio across a large number of stocks, even those within the same industry (such as competing banks), you can mitigate exposure to a single stock that experiences a major decline in performance. For 2023, Merrill Lynch recommended a broad global stock portfolio with a slight overweight in U.S. equities, including large-cap value stocks and a mixture of small-cap growth and value stocks. It contends that the Energy, Financials, Healthcare, Utilities, and Real Estate sectors offer stable returns via strong cash flow and attractive valuations.

Well-established dividend stocks pay out a steady income as well as offer growth opportunities, which is a good hedge for a strong long-term total return regardless of economic conditions.

Merrill Lynch also favors global fixed-income securities, including investment-grade corporates, 10-year Treasury bonds, and longer-maturity municipal bonds.

Fund Investing

An easy way to diversify across a wide range of stocks and/or bonds is to invest in asset category-specific mutual funds or exchange-traded funds. The immense universe of funds offers a broad range of stocks (e.g., growth, value, large-, medium- and small-cap) and bond (high yield, high quality, government, corporate) fund options. A balanced fund offers a combination of both stock and bond securities to help capture growth as well as capital preservation.

If you invest regularly through a 401(k) plan at work or defer income to an IRA, note that your money will purchase more shares when prices drop, which is often the case during a recession. As long as you have vetted and have faith in your investment choices, this discounted buying opportunity can set up your portfolio for stronger gains once the market recovers.

Cash Allocation

It is always a good idea – even more so during a recession – to hold an allocation in cash or cash-equivalent vehicles such as CDs and money market funds. However, it is not a good idea to sell stocks that have lost ground just to beef up your cash allocation. It may be better to sell a stock with significant appreciation instead, especially if it is in an industry that does not tend to perform well during a recession (e.g., Construction, Manufacturing, Retail, Leisure, and Hospitality).

Posted on

Understanding Modified Accrual Accounting

4 min read

What is Modified Accrual AccountingAccording to the Federal Register, there were about 90,000 local and state government entities throughout the country in 2022. This number is comprised of towns, counties, cities, special districts, and independent school districts. One of the commonalities these organizations share is their use of modified accrual accounting.

Understanding the Differences Between Cash and Accrual Accounting

Cash basis accounting recognizes transactions upon the exchange of cash. Expenses are not recognized until they are paid, and revenue isn’t recognized until payment has been received. Neither future obligations nor anticipated revenues are recorded in financial statements until the cash transaction has happened.

Accrual accounting treats the recognition of expenses when they are incurred. When it comes to recognizing revenue, it occurs once a business is owed compensation for its contracted complete delivery of products or services. The act of exchanging cash or payment is less important with accrual accounting.

What is Modified Accrual Accounting

This method of accounting merges the directness of cash accounting and some attributes of the more complex but equally useful accrual accounting method to account for transaction differences. One can record modified accrual accounting as each transaction is analyzed and accounted for, hinging primarily on whether an asset is short- or long-term, be it how a business recognizes revenue or incurs a liability.

Short Term Versus Long Term

This method is highly dependent on the type of asset in question. When the cash balance has been impacted by a short-term occurrence, such as a sale to a customer or the purchase of raw materials from a vendor, it must be recorded using the cash basis. This is most often recorded on the income statement.

When it comes to events that impact more than one accounting timeframe, it is referred to as long-term. If the debt that is due beyond 12 months or fixed assets are in question, these are considered long-term and must be documented on the balance sheet.

For assets such as fixed long-term debt and fixed assets, which are considered longer-term, they are recorded on the balance sheet. Such assets are then depreciated or amortized over an asset’s lifetime.

Where Modified Accrual is Used

While public companies may use this for financial statements internally, it is not permitted for public financial reporting by generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) or the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). One important consideration for private or public companies is that when the modified cash basis method is used, there is an implicit consideration that transactions recorded on a cash basis will have to be adjusted to an accrual-based accounting to be accepted by third-party auditors.

Since the financial statements submitted to be evaluated by a third-party auditor would not have been 100 percent on an accrual basis, they would fail a third-party audit, creating a crisis of confidence among outside observers. The transition from a cash basis will require less translation to a full accrual basis accounting. However, for non-publicly traded, private businesses, for internally-only used financial statements and/or no financing required, it can be useful.

One important reason this standard is widely used throughout government agencies is because the Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) created the standard, and it is recognized as an established metric.

The reason governmental agencies implement this standard is because local and state governments keep their attention on present year fiscal responsibilities. This works with their dual principal purposes. The first is to document in any event if present-year monetary inflows are satisfactory to fund present-year costs. It also satisfies that each government entity can substantiate if government funds are utilized in accordance with the law.

Depending on the type of entity and how they are functioning in the economy, private or public sectors can look at how modified accrual accounting impacts their operations.